Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities, talks about the U.S. housing market and seasonal patterns affecting prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell 4 percent in December, more than forecast, to the lowest level since the housing crisis began in mid-2006. Shiller speaks with Mark Crumpton on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.” (Source: Bloomberg)
All of the 20 major cities tracked by Case Shiller home price index showed declining trends in 4th Quarter 2011…EXCEPT Phoenix!
It’s S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index day again, and for the third month in a row, Phoenix was the only metropolitan area to show a month over month gain, moving up from 101.12 to 101.91 for the period October through December 2011. This is not quite enough to push the index higher than that for October through December 2010 (103.10) but the final figure for 2011 was higher than any of the 11 previous months in 2011 and next month Case-Shiller will be showing positive annual appreciation for Phoenix. Case-Shiller’s lowest point for Phoenix was that measured for July through September at 100.22 (published on November 29).
This correlates nicely with our quarterly average $/SF numbers, as it should. Detroit is the only city showing positive appreciation over the last 12 months but it suffered a decline of 3.8% between November and December so the upward trend it sustained between April and September seems to have collapsed. In fact all cities except Phoenix were showing a declining price trend in the 4Q of 2011. We can confidently predict that the Case-Shiller Index for Phoenix will continue to rise for at least the next 3 months. The recent decline in pricing elsewhere across the USA seems to be strongest in Atlanta – down 16% between July and December 2011. Even the previously strong Washington DC area has posted a decline of 2.9% over the last 6 months.